Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7518bd40cb88dad1731e1e1e191ba82242e84a76f8b4c00fa3c71dc3a05f775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 29c | 1,659$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.43 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,006$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 21c | 826.92$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 77c | 794.8$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 761.24$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 687.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 558.57$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 557.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 5c | 419.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 411.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 379$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 326.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 21c | 318.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 275.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 272.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 26c | 269.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 256.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…5231backed Yes | 23c | 226$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 32c | 224.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 63c | 220.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 24c | 212.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 10c | 207.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 207.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 199.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed No | 72c | 187.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 179.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 176.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 163$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 152.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 151.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 31c | 148.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 15c | 144.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 13c | 143.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 64c | 143.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 139.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 79c | 134.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 16c | 134.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 23c | 131.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 68c | 123.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 11c | 123.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 119.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 111.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 28c | 110.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 46c | 107.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 11c | 104.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 61c | 103$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 37c | 99.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 94.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 40c | 92.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 33c | 91.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 88.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 49c | 83.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 76.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 29c | 75.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 30c | 71.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 70.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 17c | 64.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…9feabacked Yes | 16c | 64.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 63.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 61.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 33c | 60.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 24c | 59.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Yes | 25c | 57.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 30c | 56.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 71c | 54.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6b54backed Yes | 30c | 50.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 49.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 49.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 44.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed No | 70c | 43.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 42.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 39.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 29c | 39.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 37.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 35c | 36.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 43c | 30.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 59c | 30.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.