Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39e183633e09ea0e0b07a142a54a7e3eeb02365ac4618b2f4089fb377ad088a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 12c | 484.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 481.69$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 464.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 289.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 7c | 169.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 24c | 159.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed Yes | 32c | 156.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 9c | 131.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 100.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 26c | 100.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 97.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 95.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 78c | 94.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 13c | 90.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 90.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 85.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 15c | 85.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 29c | 69.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed No | 77c | 67.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 22c | 65.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 62.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd0…a3b5backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…4fbebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 49.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…54b3backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…3902backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +99%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 27c | 37.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…41e7backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…b884backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 32.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 32.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 31.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 23.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 21.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 76c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.