Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c012437e3d3a24de4e2180a79a233c6eff2bdaccaa6beaa7c2d12c2ad92318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,315 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed No | 0c | 18,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…d434backed No | 0c | 15,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…f46cbacked No | 0c | 14,700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…4af2backed No | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…6757backed No | 0c | 12,800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed No | 0c | 12,300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8093…b208backed No | 0c | 11,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed No | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 0c | 4,172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 1,636$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,326$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 745.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 47c | 736.93$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.93 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 79c | 649.08$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 644.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 16c | 367.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…99a1backed Yes | 29c | 329$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 5c | 324.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 4c | 268.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 257.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 29c | 240.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 60c | 205.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 46c | 199.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 196.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 171.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 18c | 158.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…e12bbacked No | 18c | 137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 127.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e0…cddebacked No | 12c | 122.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 57c | 120.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 119.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 108.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 99.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 67c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…85b0backed No | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 33c | 71.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 77c | 69.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f206backed No | 16c | 68.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 18c | 67.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…20a2backed Yes | 79c | 63.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 39c | 63.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 52.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 79c | 50.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…2d70backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 31.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 64c | 31.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 61c | 27.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 52c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 41c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 52c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.