Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf19ea2e564198628da152ada3049e15f4b5e5f531ec396c7c5702a732e373f74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 71c | 1,786$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.75 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 1c | 1,324$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 1,070$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.94 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,058$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.96 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 761.91$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 47c | 668.35$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 23c | 588.45$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 448.66$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 432.14$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 407.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 77c | 404.97$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.79 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…a8afbacked No | 24c | 382.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 58c | 346.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 3c | 342.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 39c | 300.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.25 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 270.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 26c | 268.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 38c | 264.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 258.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 14c | 251.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 230.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 74c | 229.68$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 37c | 226.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 64c | 212.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 34c | 171.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b2…4b3dbacked Yes | 28c | 157.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 155.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 16c | 152.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 150.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 145.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 32c | 134.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 26c | 132.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 75c | 128.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 33c | 125.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 105.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 103.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 76c | 99.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 44c | 98.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…950fbacked Yes | 20c | 97.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 55c | 97.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 96.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 87.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…ac33backed Yes | 26c | 81.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…0af6backed Yes | 22c | 77.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +352.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 76.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 42c | 75.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 45c | 74.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 74c | 67.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 66.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 34c | 65.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…0f31backed Yes | 30c | 63.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed No | 78c | 62.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 79c | 59.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 56.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 33c | 54.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…a261backed Yes | 21c | 51.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed No | 65c | 51.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes | 36c | 51.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 27c | 49.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 30c | 49.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 49.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed No | 75c | 47.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 25c | 47.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 58c | 47.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 25c | 47.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 46.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 31c | 45.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3849…b441backed Yes | 31c | 45.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 42c | 44.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 43.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d48…3fdfbacked Yes | 25c | 42.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 74c | 35.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed No | 69c | 34.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 74c | 32.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked No | 67c | 29.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…64cebacked Yes | 35c | 28.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 47c | 27.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 73c | 26.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed No | 74c | 26.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 25.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 25.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 46c | 24.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked No | 66c | 20.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 67c | 19.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 78c | 19.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 70c | 18.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked No | 73c | 16.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 74c | 16.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 71c | 15.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.