Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfefed93016b3738356e6f548b88bb5b27cc51130bfa2ac94674afc028195ae4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1868…8c07backed Yes | 0c | 16,483$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…8babbacked Yes | 0c | 15,040$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 2c | 12,705$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.39 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…a71ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,921$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed Yes | 1c | 9,859$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb8…c271backed Yes | 0c | 3,215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 2c | 931.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 43c | 858.97$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.68 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 2c | 775.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 765.87$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 56c | 715.63$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.02 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 49c | 657.82$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 61c | 654.16$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 595.12$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 480.87$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.39 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 354.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 52c | 343.23$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.29 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 49c | 326.32$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 60c | 249.74$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 65c | 243.33$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 49c | 209.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 64c | 202.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 196.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 49c | 194.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 49c | 193.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 177.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 41c | 177.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 156.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 59c | 147.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 48c | 145.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 49c | 144.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 43c | 144.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…dd3bbacked Yes | 33c | 143.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 134.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 46c | 130.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 9c | 124.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…bd87backed Yes | 56c | 122.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 34c | 111.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 55c | 102.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 47c | 101.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…a8afbacked No | 53c | 100.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 100.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 97.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 97.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 97.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 50c | 92.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 46c | 91.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 64c | 90.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 45c | 83.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 47c | 82.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 59c | 81.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 80.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 52c | 79.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 48c | 79.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 49c | 77.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 57c | 68.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 68.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0b…ad9ebacked Yes | 42c | 67.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 64.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 37c | 62.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 61.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 47c | 60.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 54c | 59.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 59c | 56.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 55.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…0f9dbacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 41c | 52.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 50c | 50.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8424…78a5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 49.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 49c | 49.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 59c | 49.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 48c | 48.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 47c | 48.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 48.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 57c | 48.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed Yes | 55c | 46.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 49c | 46.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 55c | 46.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…6e80backed Yes | 47c | 45.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed Yes | 51c | 44.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 43c | 43.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 56c | 43.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 39c | 43.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 43c | 43.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…1869backed No | 61c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 40.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 54c | 40.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 36c | 39.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.