Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d1f23c275d6f503c1f6de66cc621f3f7d0f925576f3dd0080405f23def4d95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5750…2614backed Yes | 0c | 13,673$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 10c | 751.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 10c | 660.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 10c | 610.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 10c | 522.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 482.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 11c | 458.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 21c | 305.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 17c | 296.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 15c | 272.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 13c | 266.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 15c | 265.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 258.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 79c | 244.54$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 20c | 235.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 225.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 221.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 208.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 202.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 200.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 24c | 192.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 186.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 168.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 13c | 166.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 165.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 158.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 145.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 23c | 131.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 127.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 122.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 12c | 103.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 14c | 101.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 98.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 17c | 97.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…696abacked Yes | 14c | 88.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 17c | 88.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 15c | 76.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 21c | 66.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…e5e8backed Yes | 18c | 65.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 20c | 60.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…6e80backed Yes | 19c | 55.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 54.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 43.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 35.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 78c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…a1a5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.