Venezuela · resolved market
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Under 40% by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af90e71db9616eed2caa51da1ce2dc05f1bbc5d491b6761abf6102fc172bbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 2,312$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,919$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.98 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 66c | 243$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 230.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed Yes | 51c | 143$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 47c | 139$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 58c | 133$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked No | 53c | 76.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 29.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Under 40% by Friday?this page
- Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Over 50% by Friday?No won
- Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Over 60% by Friday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.