Music · resolved market

Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42066ed85c58905b703c0ee9465ae34c0165816724792d682ac9cd0deb4e08a6

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $95,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	18c	16,309$2,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,899.08	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	20c	6,717$1,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,315.26	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	20c	4,345$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$878.84	63	39.7%25 W · 38 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	13c	4,205$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.27	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-3.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No	79c	3,622$2,874 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.79	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	8c	2,750$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.11	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes	7c	2,461$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.06	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+3.7wins	+0.22per pick	49cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x25c2…5b28backed Yes	11c	2,048$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.2	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	9c	1,707$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.31	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+231.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes	12c	1,646$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.52	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5282…82fcbacked Yes	5c	1,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.44	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72a…435abacked Yes	12c	1,470$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	5c	1,431$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.22	147	8.2%12 W · 135 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c0…d67bbacked Yes	12c	1,308$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes	7c	1,302$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.94	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc691…389cbacked Yes	20c	1,161$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.29	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b6…1b79backed Yes	12c	1,131$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	8c	1,110$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.83	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff1…39b9backed Yes	10c	1,100$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes	11c	1,063$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.93	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+132.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eba…e00cbacked Yes	18c	999.45$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.01	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	10c	945.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.74	81	22.2%18 W · 63 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+75%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…250fbacked Yes	8c	795.55$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+133%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	13c	737.6$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	162	50.6%82 W · 80 L	+11.6wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes	6c	700$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec5e…3d71backed Yes	10c	671.51$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.97	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	20cpaid	+345.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f80…2804backed Yes	14c	594.1$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.15	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	10c	532.81$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.28	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes	10c	527.42$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	93	33.3%31 W · 62 L	+10.8wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+76%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes	6c	515.93$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.38	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+4.0wins	+0.10per pick	22cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	9c	504.92$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.28	151	19.2%29 W · 122 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	29cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa440…a487backed Yes	11c	470$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+72%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	12c	443.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.28	102	35.3%36 W · 66 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked Yes	8c	428.54$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	6c	403.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	9c	382.73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	4c	377.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes	6c	359.06$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+213.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes	5c	349.01$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.45	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b15…96d4backed Yes	9c	341.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	23c	320$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.35	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x722c…09ebbacked Yes	9c	312.45$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+134.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb475…978cbacked Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	5c	289.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	10c	262.28$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	67	3%2 W · 65 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf221…8b16backed Yes	6c	257.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes	7c	240.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	93	35.5%33 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	11c	235.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	71	39.4%28 W · 43 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf383…c49fbacked Yes	22c	228.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.71	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-4.9wins	-0.21per pick	26cpaid	-92.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x67ce…cd2fbacked Yes	18c	219.78$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.56	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	15c	217.68$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.16	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes	17c	214.2$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.32	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+3.7wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes	6c	199.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e4…2381backed Yes	11c	185.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	10c	184.51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	+345.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	7c	152.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.17per pick	17cpaid	+65.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	50	46%23 W · 27 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	9c	137.09$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	69	5.8%4 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+148.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	9c	127.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	247	32%79 W · 168 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b35…4a36backed Yes	17c	119.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes	10c	116.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x186c…11cebacked Yes	22c	114$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	20c	113.25$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.98	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	18c	106.04$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.79	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed No	78c	102.36$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.52	58	19%11 W · 47 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2190…0b30backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc3…70ddbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca0…e17abacked No	77c	99.99$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8dd…9b5abacked Yes	20c	99.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Yes	12c	95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	48	31.3%15 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x115f…f51dbacked Yes	22c	92.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd60…0e42backed Yes	19c	60.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	79c	26.52$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.49	55	72.7%40 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	74cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…9452backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x118d…bf7fbacked No	80c	17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event