Music · resolved market

Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f623129f5fe09c7075fe8613c0d1e0889c3566604188a37fe5d4f153fe97874

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $134,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,355 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes	1c	17,437$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.99	77	23.4%18 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	1c	13,881$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.9	143	15.4%22 W · 121 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+353%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed Yes	1c	12,199$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.15	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+296.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	11,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	65	1.5%1 W · 64 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,945$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.13	147	8.2%12 W · 135 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb3…e0c1backed Yes	1c	6,729$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	1c	6,058$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.06	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	3,312$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.33	58	3.4%2 W · 56 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+202.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes	1c	2,979$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.78	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	+7.8wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+272%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	1,742$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes	1c	1,583$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	148	35.8%53 W · 95 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes	10c	331.33$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f8…898ebacked Yes	8c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event