Music · resolved market

Will Germany be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07452b0c0378366ae08b39c2c4ea4fb9a62e920ef92faf7c7adfea30b864b562

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $111,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,960 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Music
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	0c	23,093$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.42	143	15.4%22 W · 121 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+353%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1854…7837backed Yes	2c	3,648$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	1c	2,822$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfca9…34adbacked Yes	1c	2,752$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,736$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	58	3.4%2 W · 56 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+202.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef35…144bbacked Yes	2c	2,456$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c5…7e55backed Yes	1c	1,655$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee22…e884backed Yes	2c	1,634$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x401b…a661backed Yes	2c	1,515$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46e5…5361backed Yes	2c	1,486$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19ac…54bbbacked Yes	2c	1,391$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	2c	1,250$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+187.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89cb…0574backed Yes	2c	1,057$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b8…c667backed Yes	2c	1,051$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2465…433ebacked Yes	2c	896$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c41…12babacked Yes	2c	766$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Germany be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event