AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307a53fa4b6d4caaf85d507266175bd4e281569fff875fe4f86495511c38d360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,998 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9492…3c58backed Yes | 1c | 2,407$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 63c | 922$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 37c | 922$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 63c | 906$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 37c | 906$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 53c | 764.82$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.81 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 26c | 705.25$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.28 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 74c | 560$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.6 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 341$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.18 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 70c | 339$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 30c | 339$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 29c | 228.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.47 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 27c | 212.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.18 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 15c | 210$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.9 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed No | 20c | 198.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 33c | 181.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…9465backed Yes | 62c | 170$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 38c | 161.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.54 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 28c | 113.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 35c | 104.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…020fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 45c | 58.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 47.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 78c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 72c | 45.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 39.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1d…cd05backed Yes | 63c | 30.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 30.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…2e68backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…bb44backed Yes | 73c | 17.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.