AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e149717c997325a4b6f6a05db031bfdff17bd6bcbcd74b3d6520bf8955973e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,129 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 25c | 868.27$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.75 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 54c | 572.88$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.18 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 37c | 484.27$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.81 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 38c | 371.39$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.37 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9492…3c58backed Yes | 14c | 253.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked Yes | 16c | 223.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 112$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 108.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked No | 76c | 107$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…5e03backed Yes | 13c | 101.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…cc1cbacked Yes | 19c | 89.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +238.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Yes | 17c | 59.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 47c | 55.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 47.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652c…4229backed Yes | 70c | 42.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 74c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…2e68backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…8f64backed Yes | 74c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.