Movies · resolved market
Will "The Rip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x210e32d3553c265165e8a026692694304b6cf548180bb6b0a3cf9c0e6de9a822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 15c | 1,247$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 15c | 713$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 13c | 683$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 14c | 601$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 13c | 484$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d75…4651backed Yes | 63c | 414.88$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 8c | 397$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 46c | 340.44$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.76 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 14c | 207.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 170.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 53c | 167$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…c6d4backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd86…ee9ebacked Yes | 62c | 140$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…757fbacked Yes | 55c | 138.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 32c | 126.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 18c | 62.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99d3…1a34backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…335dbacked Yes | 53c | 44.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 37c | 43.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 48c | 42.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 27c | 37.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 51c | 25.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Rip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)this page
- Will "Crazy, Stupid, Love" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "Kidnapped: Elizabeth Smart" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)No won
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.