World Politics · resolved market
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcff57ef7afae6def2b9560b74f4a83ca0557f307b5a75f69bfd57c3f8173e5a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b72…beddbacked Yes | 17c | 5,833$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 31c | 4,354$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.63 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…4f53backed Yes | 49c | 3,670$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes | 27c | 3,605$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 3,406$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.08 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed Yes | 39c | 2,931$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 47c | 2,669$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked Yes | 40c | 2,523$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 36c | 1,732$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.56 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,642$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 39c | 1,491$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 28c | 1,470$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.71 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f3…d56cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,434$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…26dfbacked Yes | 40c | 1,273$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 58c | 1,240$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.86 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,213$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 61c | 1,197$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 61c | 1,193$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.85 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c3e6backed Yes | 45c | 1,004$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…6bbebacked Yes | 12c | 1,002$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed No | 61c | 899$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked No | 61c | 870$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed No | 69c | 771$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 69c | 624$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 64c | 620.06$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.43 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 39c | 610$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 63c | 581.65$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.73 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 29c | 572$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 554.28$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 26c | 552.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed No | 61c | 541$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…fd90backed Yes | 38c | 523.3$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 75c | 478$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 25c | 468$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes | 40c | 449.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Yes | 40c | 444.26$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 59c | 435$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…229abacked Yes | 42c | 411.95$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 39c | 411$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…0a9ebacked Yes | 17c | 400.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 400$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 38c | 397.44$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.81 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 62c | 388.76$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.28 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…e1babacked Yes | 40c | 359$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 26c | 350$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e3…c075backed Yes | 29c | 348.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…e581backed Yes | 34c | 324.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 41c | 314.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 43c | 314.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 32c | 308.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 306.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 31c | 304.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…9ee5backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 33c | 299.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Yes | 35c | 286.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…698abacked Yes | 26c | 265.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…0992backed Yes | 38c | 256.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 43c | 253.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…3f07backed No | 71c | 250.69$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93c…475ebacked Yes | 30c | 243.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf042…e5f0backed Yes | 42c | 239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ed…65c7backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…69f2backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…373fbacked Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…781fbacked Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…bb90backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…1d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…89b1backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…bc69backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 71c | 237.83$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…3c29backed Yes | 42c | 229$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 45c | 207.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 204.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…5432backed Yes | 46c | 202.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…4c08backed Yes | 42c | 195$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 49c | 189.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…ec8cbacked Yes | 44c | 187.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…c134backed Yes | 42c | 181$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 42c | 174.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…9104backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…19c3backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…9721backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…320fbacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…ce1abacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…9b41backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…f6fcbacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9aa…0255backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…bd0cbacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…008abacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1c…44fdbacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…943ebacked No | 58c | 172$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 171.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…4c54backed No | 58c | 171$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…c739backed No | 58c | 171$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…9adbbacked No | 58c | 171$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…cd21backed No | 58c | 171$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 38c | 167.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?this page
- Will Adrienne Charles win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?No won
- Will Benjamin Rankin win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?No won
- Will Maria Cantore win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?No won
- Will Maxime Beaudoin win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?No won
- Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.