TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,424 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b72…beddbacked Yes17c5,833$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.08825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes31c4,354$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.637129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dcb…4f53backed Yes49c3,670$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes27c3,605$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.26450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes20c3,406$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.0838023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed Yes39c2,931$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes47c2,669$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.69944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a3f…6deabacked Yes40c2,523$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+65.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes36c1,732$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.565145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes31c1,642$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.021241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes39c1,491$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.491346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes28c1,470$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.7112029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f3…d56cbacked Yes31c1,434$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde8…26dfbacked Yes40c1,273$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No58c1,240$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.8628434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes36c1,213$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No61c1,197$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.83875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed No61c1,193$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.27520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes16c1,100$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.853148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c4…c3e6backed Yes45c1,004$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41dc…6bbebacked Yes12c1,002$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed No61c899$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked No61c870$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ac…d8c5backed No69c771$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No69c624$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.441154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+75.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No64c620.06$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.4310634.9%37 W · 69 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes39c610$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.126139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No63c581.65$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.737570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes29c572$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.029035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No62c554.28$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.4132255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes26c552.55$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.972630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa27…d1d3backed No61c541$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x731d…fd90backed Yes38c523.3$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked No75c478$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+84.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes25c468$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes40c449.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30b9…9b83backed Yes40c444.26$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No59c435$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.52733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…229abacked Yes42c411.95$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes39c411$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3277…0a9ebacked Yes17c400.17$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14654934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91e8…b571backed Yes37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes38c397.44$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.815036%18 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No62c388.76$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.285817.2%10 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40f0…e1babacked Yes40c359$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.611233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes26c350$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x22e3…c075backed Yes29c348.34$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.18812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-64.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad04…e581backed Yes34c324.17$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes41c314.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.814947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes43c314.83$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.822133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes32c308.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007833.3%26 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c306.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes31c304.02$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.517238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa28c…9ee5backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes33c299.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.996927.5%19 W · 50 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f26…bac3backed Yes35c286.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcada…698abacked Yes26c265.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabd…0992backed Yes38c256.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked Yes43c253.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e4…3f07backed No71c250.69$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.694100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf93c…475ebacked Yes30c243.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf042…e5f0backed Yes42c239$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ed…65c7backed Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x178d…69f2backed Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6695…373fbacked Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…781fbacked Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c3…bb90backed Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ad…1d2fbacked Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc49…89b1backed Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd8…bc69backed Yes42c238$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No71c237.83$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x270d…3c29backed Yes42c229$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes45c207.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.892227.3%6 W · 16 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-55.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes9c204.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.673917.9%7 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1599…5432backed Yes46c202.08$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e8…4c08backed Yes42c195$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes49c189.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.871060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c34…ec8cbacked Yes44c187.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ab…c134backed Yes42c181$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes42c174.85$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7612630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d26…9104backed No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a99…19c3backed No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8baf…9721backed No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5a…320fbacked No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bce…ce1abacked No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x375b…9b41backed No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf9…f6fcbacked No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9aa…0255backed No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…bd0cbacked No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb992…008abacked No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a1c…44fdbacked No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x328d…943ebacked No58c172$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No64c171.08$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9910652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd255…4c54backed No58c171$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae84…c739backed No58c171$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f63…9adbbacked No58c171$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e6d…cd21backed No58c171$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes38c167.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.442055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.