World Politics · one pick
Wallet 0x2d81…fe57 got this wrong.
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x2d811b8d15236dabe92b2f3610a01cc9dbcafe57/m/0xcff57ef7afae6def2b9560b74f4a83ca0557f307b5a75f69bfd57c3f8173e5a9
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Yesat 38c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- No won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 167.52 shares$63 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- -$63.44-100% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole World Politics record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2d81…fe57in World Politics | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in World Politics and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market197 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its World Politics record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.