Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc629153786da318665cc9c292ddcb8c86d64f2a5c06328ee17ed466511d014e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 1c | 10,567$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 2c | 5,142$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…caa6backed No | 3c | 4,648$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…83a8backed No | 3c | 4,110$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 3c | 4,092$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed No | 4c | 3,322$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 4c | 3,055$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…dbe6backed No | 5c | 2,606$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 2,496$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,442$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,434$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945c…a489backed No | 4c | 1,779$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,594$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 2c | 1,450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…5a29backed No | 3c | 1,401$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 1c | 1,384$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 3c | 1,334$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked No | 4c | 1,202$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 3c | 1,126$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed No | 10c | 1,065$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 39cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 1c | 970.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…079ebacked No | 2c | 941.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 782.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked No | 1c | 766$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 8c | 757$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 713.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 4c | 627.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 10c | 495$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 10c | 436$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 4c | 431.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 10c | 374$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 10c | 225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…24fabacked No | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 10c | 136$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)this page
- Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Run Away" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.