Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ca279b0cc1f024a50e099c80fa1dcb3cd905571375919940b62ea864270022e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 6c | 3,128$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 11c | 1,398$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 1,046$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 9c | 849.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 11c | 791$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 11c | 752$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 6c | 644.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 11c | 621$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5adebacked No | 11c | 613$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 498.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 11c | 493$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 10c | 480$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 439.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed No | 11c | 436$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 11c | 379$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 11c | 377$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 11c | 369$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 10c | 279.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…9924backed No | 6c | 272.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 6c | 249.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 21c | 226$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 7c | 219.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 11c | 212$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 12c | 197$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 8c | 167.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 11c | 166$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 11c | 113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 11c | 113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed No | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed Yes | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?this page
- Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.