IPO · resolved market
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $4.6B and $5.0B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb26ce1cbec446eb5e7e901ee843c883339a4d6e4ae7c61c16e9e7f4a627741c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 26c | 935$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…5e0bbacked Yes | 27c | 723.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 74c | 599$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 26c | 517$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 471.46$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 26c | 399$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 74c | 399$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…1317backed Yes | 26c | 350.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 24c | 314.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 34c | 168$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 74c | 153$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…eed0backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 122.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce8…83fabacked No | 76c | 119.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c40…879bbacked No | 75c | 119.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…eb5fbacked No | 75c | 109.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 24c | 109.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37e…cf70backed Yes | 25c | 99.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…a3adbacked Yes | 26c | 66.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 62.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…4bb0backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $4.6B and $5.0B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SOLV Energy, Inc. not IPO before April 2026?No won
- Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $3.8B and $4.2B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $4.2B and $4.6B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $5.0B and $5.4B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.