Movies · resolved market
Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x766415db58e006f8ad872ee4c17c22840cc9d7969292d81684b22771e76e867c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 58c | 1,035$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 59c | 585$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 41c | 585$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 42c | 434$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 69c | 410.49$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 66c | 354.16$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 42c | 333$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 44c | 297.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9d…0230backed Yes | 4c | 280.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 43c | 206.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.73 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Yes | 69c | 193.37$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…c55fbacked Yes | 55c | 182.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ce0abacked Yes | 74c | 157.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 77c | 149.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked No | 48c | 147.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 32c | 134.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Yes | 60c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed No | 55c | 128.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 124.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…b111backed No | 40c | 107.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 59c | 107$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 41c | 107$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 39c | 101.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 80c | 85.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 30c | 79.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 41c | 75.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 66.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 63.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 63.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 53c | 59.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…fb83backed Yes | 48c | 51.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed No | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…23dfbacked Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 39c | 43.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c9…07bbbacked Yes | 60c | 36.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…0945backed Yes | 61c | 33.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…7ae8backed Yes | 58c | 31.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…aae5backed Yes | 65c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…f83ebacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…fa01backed Yes | 60c | 28.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff23…ed3fbacked Yes | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 57c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…7ceebacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…572ebacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1286…968dbacked Yes | 64c | 20.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…5fddbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…f6d0backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe468…2d0bbacked Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…f6b9backed Yes | 57c | 17.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…9344backed Yes | 59c | 17.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 65c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Acceptance Speech" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Drink" or "Drunk" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "God" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Jesus" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "Kamala" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Mention" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Minnesota" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Trump" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will "White House" or "Ballroom" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.