Movies · resolved market
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e990b71ac27283e5a9ca59a6809bdcb62ea90193e3ad9284c2659d7d429eeb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 28c | 912$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 72c | 883$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 72c | 838$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 28c | 796$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 70c | 503$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 30c | 429$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 30c | 288$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 42c | 284.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 29c | 260$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 50c | 221.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 70c | 194$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 32c | 99.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 28c | 87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 78.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…f7a5backed No | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes | 26c | 64.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…8622backed Yes | 47c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Hamnet win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes won
- Will Song Sung Blue win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.