TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Sinners win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,397 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes68c913$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.162832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes28c905$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.61866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+123%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes41c528.5$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.1934651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed No72c480$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No32c480$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.63740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes69c463$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.62142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked No31c456$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.361361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x874a…d584backed No32c425$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked No72c425$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes56c320.23$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0318444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No44c294.47$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.412927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9716741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfd…00c6backed Yes62c162.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc728…7d2dbacked No40c161.72$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1220…bc7fbacked No40c161.58$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ca…8eb9backed No40c156.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7673…9394backed No40c156.64$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1795…9565backed No40c156.54$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes40c156.42$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1616453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1313…037fbacked No40c156.05$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x428e…e05dbacked No40c155.38$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x645f…e4bbbacked No40c153.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e04…17b7backed No40c153.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4826…83eabacked No40c150.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b3…6669backed No40c149.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6172…34a9backed No40c149.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3718…087abacked No40c147.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b93…76eabacked No40c146.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1f…f18bbacked No40c146.06$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdc…00fcbacked No40c145.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…a940backed No40c144.43$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a1…ea59backed No40c138.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48c9…7223backed No40c138.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No55c131.41$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.841,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x34f2…4b29backed Yes60c108.34$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc221…04bcbacked Yes60c108.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb7…a071backed Yes60c108$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x776f…e18dbacked Yes60c107.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c2…7f10backed Yes60c106.71$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e14…4f40backed Yes60c105.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc18e…ed41backed Yes60c105.17$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60d…2204backed Yes72c104.48$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.482166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef0…7296backed Yes60c104.24$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6597…64febacked Yes60c103.22$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234e…bbdebacked Yes60c102.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0e…133dbacked Yes60c100.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce1…6a99backed Yes60c100.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf06…bb42backed Yes60c99.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ff…46b9backed Yes60c98.7$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaae2…1d56backed Yes60c98.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d60…4b0dbacked Yes60c98.65$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0411…3cc4backed Yes60c98.44$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff5…ad1fbacked Yes60c98.17$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf078…943fbacked Yes60c97.74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8412…820fbacked Yes60c96.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa361…55f5backed Yes60c96.25$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60c…6514backed Yes60c95.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc34…440cbacked Yes60c95.76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa16…0b9bbacked Yes60c94.9$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdcb…f740backed Yes60c94.32$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…b130backed Yes60c93.8$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17fc…8fa2backed Yes60c93.61$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b85…1db6backed Yes60c93.39$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x342f…5b21backed Yes60c93.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc159…f0dcbacked Yes60c92.1$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7487…6378backed No40c78.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5527…4e68backed No58c71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No36c60.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.357619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6f…f19dbacked Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.462751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No45c59.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.73240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes55c57.87$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2523741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No43c56.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.39753.6%52 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x723e…0275backed Yes73c55.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.18650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3916015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9e17…a80abacked No40c43.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc78a…b5a8backed No51c39.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…b6f1backed Yes65c38.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No49c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.615444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No65c27.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.632821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-62.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes58c26.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1313321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked No47c25.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c21.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6715641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes56c21.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.427969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x937e…c6e7backed Yes57c21.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.