Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c30ad0c9c486aa016e29a94e17b5eb941eeb3a0c5fb063285d907e4b37650f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 50c | 784.17$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.83 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…c37cbacked Yes | 59c | 436.64$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.86 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 59c | 419.96$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.99 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 371.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.77 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 34c | 335.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 257.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 26c | 200.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 46c | 183.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 18c | 144.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 143.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 141$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 71c | 139.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 72c | 139.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 54c | 130$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb302…702dbacked Yes | 73c | 123.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 74c | 111.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9204…6c17backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…1590backed Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 17c | 99.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 94.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…3833backed Yes | 25c | 91.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 88.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 85.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6690…1346backed Yes | 30c | 80.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 62c | 68.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 130 | 31.5%41 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes | 74c | 67.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 46c | 60.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 40c | 54.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 69c | 46.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed Yes | 50c | 45.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Yes | 75c | 41.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 39.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 73c | 31.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…d56bbacked No | 33c | 30.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 30.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…2dd7backed Yes | 65c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.