World Politics · resolved market
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fa16f5d7165f4fc999bf0a6d6f1659df604c20b866aa36d1413431330151958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 5c | 22,216$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.16 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 5c | 4,000$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 3,836$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.69 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 12c | 3,816$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.62 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 4c | 2,500$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 4c | 2,220$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…e1a0backed No | 5c | 2,180$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…9cf3backed No | 5c | 2,006$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked No | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 1,674$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d8…85b1backed No | 7c | 1,646$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 8c | 1,638$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.23 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaace…643ebacked No | 5c | 1,518$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 11c | 1,373$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.95 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,315$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…f285backed No | 9c | 1,289$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 4c | 1,215$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 7c | 1,100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…2a16backed No | 5c | 1,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…1480backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 987.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 5c | 955$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 5c | 800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 5c | 799.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 771.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bb…1b4abacked No | 4c | 661.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 659.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…ac68backed No | 11c | 594.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 4c | 567.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 5c | 467.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 11c | 457$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…f71fbacked No | 5c | 363.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 9c | 346.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 10c | 335.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 328.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 3c | 323.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 6c | 308.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 9c | 290.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 16c | 280$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…34e2backed No | 4c | 251.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 9c | 246.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 217.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked No | 10c | 198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed No | 16c | 158.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 8c | 154.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 7c | 142.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 78c | 13.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.