Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b80ac1661915e211c125a7860bfd34eecd5db5cd4757c138c4e0fa2f17d11c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 46c | 1,248$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 20c | 831.34$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.51 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 64c | 600$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.51per pick | 65cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d6…dafcbacked Yes | 13c | 546.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16f…0ddabacked No | 11c | 334.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 10c | 330.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.11 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 10c | 323.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 71c | 272$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 36c | 269.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 234.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 43c | 231.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 22c | 231.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 49c | 230.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6412…2297backed Yes | 13c | 218.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 15c | 217.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 6c | 203.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 45c | 181.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 23c | 142.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 68c | 135.08$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 130.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 116.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 104.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 98.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 54c | 81.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 13c | 78.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 72.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfeb…2d04backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 25c | 57.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 23c | 56.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 29c | 49.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 25c | 47.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 43c | 37.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 67c | 35.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 25.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -7.3wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 74c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.