Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a20e2613e1099e542540c8b115490a83380dfd51b3a1b9f484e0e3ec6fcd4ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,802$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 18c | 542.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 13c | 442.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 14c | 306.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 42c | 237.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Yes | 20c | 215.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 192.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 59c | 160$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 20c | 131.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 112.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed No | 56c | 109.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 102.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 83.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 45c | 75.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 70.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 44c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 38c | 58.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 35c | 56.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 38c | 41.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.