Music · resolved market
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67fa186a39bf2aa4591fd40ae0a0d95f0e3cc83da972f025f535956b48d6cbd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c43…78adbacked Yes | 1c | 6,216$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 51c | 2,374$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 4c | 2,226$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…24b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 49c | 1,121$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 49c | 1,089$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,014$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06f…6571backed Yes | 5c | 1,003$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 59c | 859.02$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.19 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 49c | 611$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +225.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 49c | 591$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 51c | 524$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 419.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked Yes | 3c | 408$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 33c | 398.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e6b8backed Yes | 3c | 362.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked No | 49c | 336$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…c8adbacked Yes | 4c | 266$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 49c | 164$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…cceebacked Yes | 21c | 145.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 23c | 86.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "back to friends - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.