World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c524478f650f1333750f556e5e15344326ac39eac810480489975e1268eee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $718,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $430,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $718,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd04…2e51backed Yes | 0c | 88,313$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…066dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,703$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 6c | 32,985$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.1 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…9e1fbacked Yes | 6c | 31,002$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 25,215$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.41 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 20,710$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.04 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 2c | 20,332$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.31 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +165%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 8c | 19,456$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592.68 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,182$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…83f9backed Yes | 4c | 15,208$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e54…fa7cbacked Yes | 8c | 13,025$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…cee9backed Yes | 11c | 12,585$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…662bbacked Yes | 9c | 11,675$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99f…62a0backed Yes | 8c | 11,228$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 6c | 10,635$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.85 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…a42cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,971$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…4b10backed Yes | 5c | 8,430$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.59 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…9b85backed Yes | 2c | 8,245$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…6619backed Yes | 5c | 6,965$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…420fbacked Yes | 9c | 6,605$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.19 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 6c | 6,533$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.84 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…f270backed Yes | 9c | 5,243$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…bd9fbacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,599$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…c185backed Yes | 10c | 4,574$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 8c | 4,300$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.53 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…9a71backed Yes | 1c | 4,065$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 7c | 3,757$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.26 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,523$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed Yes | 9c | 3,470$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +105%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa6…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 3,281$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 4c | 3,186$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,003$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 2,733$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…69f5backed Yes | 9c | 2,688$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +235.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 2,540$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…5148backed Yes | 5c | 2,512$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes | 4c | 2,130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 2,057$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd657…9026backed Yes | 8c | 1,991$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,982$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed Yes | 7c | 1,958$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 19c | 1,813$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,772$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.77 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 75c | 1,758$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.03 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…14eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,718$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,650$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…ac27backed Yes | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…39b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,267$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…998cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,014$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,005$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…5028backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…55e3backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…c449backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 988.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…45d5backed Yes | 2c | 842.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 7c | 827.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…6bfcbacked Yes | 7c | 813$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 6c | 736.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 9c | 663.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes | 9c | 576.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…c658backed Yes | 6c | 551.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…7a15backed Yes | 4c | 540.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…0af8backed Yes | 6c | 524$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +312.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 7c | 512.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd24…72d0backed Yes | 7c | 487$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…ccafbacked Yes | 9c | 454.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 9c | 413$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e9c8backed Yes | 6c | 362$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…85f5backed Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…a0eebacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…4549backed Yes | 10c | 256$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…e5ddbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6835backed Yes | 10c | 199.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…a44fbacked Yes | 9c | 172.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…097fbacked Yes | 11c | 98.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.