World Politics · resolved market
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff8f864e30a96ecade4b0137596b10abe53e6c21704b1ed2a69dceedf299392
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $451,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 30,287$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.79 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…10eebacked Yes | 4c | 24,104$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2e…09e9backed Yes | 1c | 17,319$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 8cpaid | +867.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed Yes | 4c | 16,704$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.03 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…c416backed Yes | 0c | 15,325$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…9558backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…b6f7backed Yes | 2c | 14,898$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 3c | 12,968$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.19 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…f1a6backed Yes | 3c | 12,733$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 11,351$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 10,872$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 9,796$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 3c | 6,228$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…289ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,958$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…a42cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,871$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 5,527$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,852$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…caa9backed Yes | 2c | 4,603$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…71bcbacked Yes | 8c | 4,460$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 4,314$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…420fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,306$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c66…c935backed Yes | 1c | 3,891$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 3,600$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 2c | 3,569$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…6bfcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,349$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…2e51backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba6…e84cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…45d5backed Yes | 4c | 2,908$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…39b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,885$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…e0a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,848$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 2c | 2,838$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…4a58backed Yes | 2c | 2,836$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…0af8backed Yes | 3c | 2,740$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +312.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 6c | 2,703$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,488$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052b…a204backed Yes | 1c | 2,338$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…d93abacked Yes | 3c | 2,212$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,145$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 1c | 2,043$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…c98cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,038$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed Yes | 2c | 1,973$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3bbdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,940$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…fb26backed Yes | 2c | 1,838$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +105%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 6c | 1,630$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,612$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 3c | 1,531$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…ef80backed Yes | 7c | 1,436$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,233$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,132$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 5c | 1,099$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 4c | 1,077$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…0bd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,035$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…314dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 3c | 999.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…c2ddbacked Yes | 3c | 996.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 3c | 940.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…4784backed Yes | 3c | 862.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…8490backed Yes | 2c | 840.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 4c | 820$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 811.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 803.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…25cbbacked Yes | 2c | 783.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +95%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 1c | 752.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…b018backed Yes | 2c | 717.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…bbf4backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 4c | 684$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 623.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12b…fa61backed Yes | 2c | 562.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 3c | 422$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 382.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…c96fbacked Yes | 3c | 371.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…c82fbacked Yes | 3c | 345$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 7c | 326.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…c831backed Yes | 3c | 321$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes | 4c | 278$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 8c | 221.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…4f12backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea election?this page
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?Yes won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
- Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.