World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU receive more than 30% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492d26ede60f0b5e354e00857c01ff3fe4ee7bf009006b7d4c71f204c9d6f6a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 54c | 6,636$3,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 57c | 5,449$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100.59 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 69c | 5,449$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,759.84 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 50c | 2,122$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.75 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed No | 50c | 2,004$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 48c | 1,041$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 51c | 711.73$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.7 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 46c | 520.26$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 46c | 432.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.71 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 52c | 359.02$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked Yes | 49c | 322.23$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 46c | 319.41$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 56c | 268.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 34c | 214$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…cff7backed Yes | 46c | 205.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 49c | 202.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7ffbbacked Yes | 53c | 185.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…a030backed Yes | 51c | 169.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…7215backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…858bbacked No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…be2bbacked Yes | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd9…d674backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…21f7backed Yes | 78c | 38.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…3405backed No | 52c | 34.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3882…b3cabacked Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…2860backed Yes | 46c | 23.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…4ccbbacked Yes | 51c | 21.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…e3e5backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU receive more than 30% of votes?this page
- Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?No won
- Will the AfD receive more than 16% of votes?No won
- Will the SPD receive more than 15% of votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.