World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD receive more than 15% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc268c4dd8f268b9b2a674fc149be32e95044b0141ee89566ec7455c9aae820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 55c | 4,540$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.96 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 47c | 1,884$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.13 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 42c | 1,476$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.69 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…79a4backed Yes | 42c | 1,450$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 46c | 1,188$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.62 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 55c | 1,151$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.12 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 70c | 972.95$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.76 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 33c | 599.84$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 43c | 300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 53c | 236.53$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 31c | 235$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…ed33backed Yes | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefd9…d674backed No | 60c | 83.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…a030backed No | 58c | 80.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed Yes | 47c | 75.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66cd…7b7ebacked No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…7215backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed No | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked No | 79c | 22.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…2ce7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce7…abadbacked No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…089ebacked No | 66c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD receive more than 15% of votes?this page
- Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?No won
- Will the AfD receive more than 16% of votes?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU receive more than 30% of votes?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.