World Politics · resolved market
Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6f3490ac9147281e084c98b21ff28054930192afeeae76933b3651817582d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked No | 50c | 10,540$5,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,270 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…a52bbacked Yes | 50c | 8,500$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 59c | 5,411$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.26 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 41c | 4,691$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.09 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 48c | 2,898$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.46 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 47c | 2,032$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.69 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 51c | 1,736$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.79 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 52c | 1,589$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.34 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 53c | 955.09$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 52c | 720.55$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.7 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked No | 49c | 614.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e239backed Yes | 60c | 500$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked Yes | 45c | 400$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…e50fbacked No | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 51c | 147.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…7215backed Yes | 54c | 118.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…a030backed Yes | 52c | 88.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd9…d674backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed No | 48c | 43.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…3accbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…3e3dbacked No | 54c | 26.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed No | 48c | 24.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…e3e5backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?this page
- Will the AfD receive more than 16% of votes?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU receive more than 30% of votes?Yes won
- Will the SPD receive more than 15% of votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.