World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD receive more than 16% of votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d43a7aaa2ffc3f67227f7d99a8a0573e9c0e8340b73604858dcf8b7dccb3c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 53c | 9,274$4,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,316.84 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,956$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.33 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 45c | 1,926$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 54c | 1,417$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 52c | 1,119$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.86 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 49c | 1,048$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.62 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,004$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 49c | 990.26$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.23 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…7b74backed Yes | 54c | 901.48$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…b47abacked Yes | 43c | 539.28$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 44c | 424.7$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.67 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 48c | 383.3$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e239backed No | 64c | 312.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 59c | 310$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes | 36c | 282.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked Yes | 46c | 262.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeca…7377backed Yes | 50c | 259.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed No | 50c | 253.44$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 40c | 222$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7ffbbacked Yes | 35c | 211.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…3b94backed Yes | 60c | 175.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 51c | 158.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 75c | 108$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…2b02backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…1300backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…a030backed Yes | 52c | 88.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd9…d674backed No | 52c | 64.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…858bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…cb31backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…633bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…3405backed Yes | 40c | 54.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9971…7c33backed Yes | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…6155backed Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…7215backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…3accbacked Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 48c | 45.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…3e3dbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…29afbacked Yes | 48c | 32.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…820ebacked No | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 71c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD receive more than 16% of votes?this page
- Will Grune receive more than 14% of votes?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU receive more than 30% of votes?Yes won
- Will the SPD receive more than 15% of votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.