Us Politics · resolved market
Trump cuts taxes in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced4a7bf39664e3ff715faac2adaa865b6e00e6bfc90e5bdcad9244c60191c87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 26c | 9,023$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 77c | 7,279$5,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.63 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 4,867$3,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.66 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 22c | 3,265$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 70c | 2,912$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.99 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 77c | 2,131$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 76c | 2,066$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.43 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 27c | 2,001$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.04 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,478$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.94 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 73c | 1,186$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.53 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 78c | 1,178$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.07 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 75c | 1,127$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.66 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,077$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…9095backed Yes | 23c | 1,015$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 79c | 1,000$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…27aebacked Yes | 7c | 762.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 79c | 700$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 79c | 690.25$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.95 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…747fbacked Yes | 33c | 659.07$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 16c | 646.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…ae97backed No | 78c | 555.6$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 20c | 536.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 19c | 523$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 27c | 496.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc571…177fbacked Yes | 5c | 481.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2e…b606backed Yes | 12c | 433.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 20c | 401.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 362.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…1a02backed Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 61c | 333$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 73c | 316.88$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 77c | 300.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 22c | 282.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…d8c3backed Yes | 27c | 279.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 74c | 274.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 79c | 259.65$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1f…34babacked Yes | 18c | 256.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed No | 80c | 251.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 74c | 249.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 222$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 200.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 69c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked No | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 9c | 140.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 75c | 127.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2d99backed No | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 108.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…294ebacked Yes | 15c | 105.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…ed09backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 96.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked No | 62c | 93.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…7b25backed Yes | 29c | 69.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 79c | 69.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 55.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…fbbcbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb0…719bbacked Yes | 21c | 48.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 50c | 31.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…f84bbacked Yes | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 69c | 23.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.