Weather · resolved market
2024 August hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1731c2d00c722fa4d53d1bddae549f14cf1870e2cf59dc040e7791046672cda5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,610,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,012,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,610,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed No | 0c | 522,330$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked No | 4c | 426,550$18,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,501.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…55c1backed No | 1c | 292,208$4,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,104.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287e…72ccbacked No | 2c | 271,932$5,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,257.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed No | 13c | 130,129$17,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,345.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 13c | 114,430$14,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,846.12 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…c9fabacked No | 1c | 100,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3943…5b47backed No | 3c | 70,242$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked No | 4c | 66,791$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 3c | 44,766$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 5c | 42,393$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.18 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed No | 3c | 38,785$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 2c | 38,679$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…08e3backed No | 1c | 32,758$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…e2b7backed No | 2c | 29,466$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 0c | 26,866$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 4c | 25,057$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…a127backed No | 8c | 24,805$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…ce48backed No | 8c | 22,261$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed No | 2c | 22,050$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked No | 1c | 21,561$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…fb7dbacked No | 6c | 20,221$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 3c | 17,364$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 17,258$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.96 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…d27dbacked No | 1c | 17,067$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…2a8ebacked No | 2c | 16,164$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed No | 2c | 14,500$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.85 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…efacbacked No | 1c | 13,888$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 3c | 13,798$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.67 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…9f54backed No | 2c | 12,935$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 5c | 10,513$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…be54backed No | 4c | 10,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…5754backed No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b1…80ebbacked No | 2c | 10,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 19c | 10,000$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.08 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed No | 4c | 8,648$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked No | 5c | 8,129$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 28c | 7,667$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.39 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…0b9cbacked No | 15c | 7,517$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 1c | 7,510$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…4e8cbacked No | 3c | 7,464$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No | 2c | 7,346$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 6c | 6,987$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 13c | 6,820$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed No | 2c | 6,588$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2c…3920backed No | 2c | 5,546$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a1…22d1backed No | 2c | 5,060$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330e…77c0backed No | 1c | 5,001$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc321…3a36backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…eae7backed No | 2c | 4,933$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…0dd7backed No | 14c | 4,817$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 11c | 4,699$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.03 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…f87bbacked No | 14c | 4,672$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b136backed No | 2c | 4,439$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 12c | 4,236$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked No | 4c | 4,093$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…076ebacked No | 2c | 3,795$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…c229backed No | 3c | 3,760$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 2c | 3,702$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 65c | 3,597$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 5c | 3,463$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0808backed No | 14c | 3,331$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 2c | 3,220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…2b81backed No | 2c | 3,125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb4…0068backed No | 1c | 3,011$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 6c | 2,700$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 13c | 2,628$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…17fbbacked No | 6c | 2,581$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed No | 20c | 2,521$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 20c | 2,500$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.49 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked No | 2c | 2,405$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked No | 2c | 2,268$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 1c | 2,260$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…5421backed No | 1c | 2,143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…cc17backed No | 45c | 2,098$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…ab09backed No | 4c | 2,061$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…821dbacked No | 2c | 2,037$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked No | 2c | 2,026$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…0895backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 57c | 1,812$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…2a31backed No | 10c | 1,806$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…6de9backed No | 2c | 1,768$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…7c34backed No | 2c | 1,699$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…2e52backed No | 8c | 1,688$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…29f1backed No | 3c | 1,632$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…68f9backed No | 2c | 1,631$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…34d3backed No | 2c | 1,579$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 10c | 1,501$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…49f4backed No | 10c | 1,491$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 3c | 1,450$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 3c | 1,277$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…e3b2backed No | 2c | 1,267$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 2c | 1,234$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0c…809fbacked No | 2c | 1,158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…90dbbacked No | 1c | 1,151$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87e…2d00backed No | 4c | 1,111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked No | 5c | 1,021$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.