Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1255ac9a065f22d2248555ac54398165967145cfbfbc1cfdaba903320cc24bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 16c | 2,033$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…3040backed Yes | 4c | 1,558$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd6…3b62backed No | 79c | 1,454$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…a3f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,070$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 20c | 992.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 13c | 750.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 13c | 750$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…6950backed Yes | 19c | 488.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 468.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1f…34babacked Yes | 29c | 441.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b59…ba17backed Yes | 14c | 376.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 15c | 350.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2828…1e68backed Yes | 10c | 302$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9944backed Yes | 12c | 282.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 74c | 251$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…0285backed Yes | 15c | 208$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 21c | 202.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.32per pick | 24cpaid | +320%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f48…c790backed No | 70c | 186.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2550…ea63backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…7652backed Yes | 30c | 168.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 67c | 153.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…4d54backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 76c | 119.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b1…3b8fbacked Yes | 21c | 108.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7a…cc34backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…df86backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.