Weather · resolved market
Will 2024 have the hottest April on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf57940e4ae65cf49cd3aa3618ab227404843ed529996f506788bbd6613b2f307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 3c | 7,998$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 7c | 6,028$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 6c | 6,027$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 1c | 4,071$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 3c | 2,292$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…e2dabacked No | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…c85ebacked No | 5c | 2,200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…82aebacked No | 3c | 2,013$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43d…5c95backed No | 3c | 1,798$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 10c | 1,441$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…47dcbacked No | 4c | 1,285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,252$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.47 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc500…5e88backed No | 3c | 961.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…9256backed No | 15c | 800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 2c | 711.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…4032backed No | 18c | 650$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…a8fbbacked No | 8c | 572.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…1cc2backed No | 27c | 540$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed No | 28c | 453.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 8c | 418.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…780fbacked Yes | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 9c | 350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…ad04backed Yes | 73c | 240$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…6dd6backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa3…ad2cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.