Weather · resolved market
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583d89611b30c85743830410b82edf7aaf603473bae6e3722d6708cb72863c24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 44c | 1,351$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.39 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 60c | 639.03$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 612.19$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.16 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 500$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 69c | 411.85$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 45c | 304.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…0190backed No | 29c | 191.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…aa01backed Yes | 43c | 175.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 37c | 173.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 57c | 156$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 55c | 134.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 104$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…a286backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 47c | 74.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…48bcbacked No | 38c | 39.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 75c | 30.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…2584backed Yes | 51c | 29.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 48c | 22.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…28cfbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.