Tennis · resolved market
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Madrid Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a1234061619ab039aa7241917293f2f090197dc866b03f55586de63bae9730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Yes | 33c | 2,588$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.93 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 30c | 2,019$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.11 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 2c | 862.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.49 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +256.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Yes | 19c | 708.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.24 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 69c | 702.73$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.39 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 32c | 648.16$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 67c | 617.21$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 31c | 552.7$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…b4f9backed Yes | 26c | 465.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.44 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2f79backed Yes | 34c | 440.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 25c | 436.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.69 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a2…962abacked Yes | 60c | 421.83$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 67c | 419.91$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.24 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 61c | 399.61$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 26c | 359.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.9 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…850bbacked Yes | 71c | 351.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 63c | 260.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 29c | 238.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.59 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Yes | 43c | 220.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 60c | 191.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 179.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…9040backed Yes | 35c | 172.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 33c | 157.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…c049backed No | 68c | 147.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…787dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 33c | 105.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 52c | 104.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…364cbacked Yes | 29c | 104.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a88…dfe1backed Yes | 35c | 98.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720d…734dbacked Yes | 11c | 92.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 32c | 82.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f393backed Yes | 29c | 69.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ce…23b2backed Yes | 36c | 55.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…7aa8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yes | 63c | 39.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 68c | 38.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…e932backed Yes | 66c | 38.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 67c | 16.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Madrid Open?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.