Tennis · resolved market
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 Madrid Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadc767e39a1e0f88ee66ed0b91c31f053afe0400542a2475262886fa48b951a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,748$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 47c | 2,337$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.89 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…c049backed Yes | 68c | 2,245$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…3b57backed Yes | 69c | 1,453$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,222$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.52 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abb…847bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,009$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 35c | 1,000$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…9c96backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc814…dc7cbacked No | 31c | 926.65$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 74c | 775.33$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dd…a9ebbacked Yes | 68c | 734.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…b4f9backed Yes | 40c | 641.3$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2f79backed Yes | 26c | 579.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…9b0cbacked Yes | 69c | 553.94$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 43c | 552.7$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 34c | 510.67$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.98 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes | 45c | 508.76$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.63 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 60c | 504$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 11c | 438.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 364.87$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 41c | 244.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 50c | 238.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…7502backed Yes | 41c | 224.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes | 69c | 218.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…756dbacked Yes | 68c | 196.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 66c | 181.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 180$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 58c | 167.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 64c | 166.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 50c | 161.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Yes | 50c | 151.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 69c | 145.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2273backed No | 67c | 139.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…5643backed Yes | 68c | 135.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…d049backed Yes | 69c | 133.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…f965backed Yes | 41c | 101.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 72c | 85.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yes | 69c | 80.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…db3dbacked Yes | 69c | 75.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 45c | 67.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…7316backed Yes | 29c | 67.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked No | 61c | 67.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc752…1f6cbacked Yes | 70c | 49.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 53c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 68c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…addabacked Yes | 68c | 40.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…1fc1backed Yes | 73c | 39.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9e97backed Yes | 70c | 38.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 40c | 35.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…9b33backed Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…188ebacked Yes | 70c | 31.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Yes | 66c | 30.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…5533backed Yes | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 68c | 29.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…8e16backed Yes | 73c | 27.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 68c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jack Draper win the 2025 Madrid Open?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Madrid Open?Yes won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 Madrid Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.