Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – Tiafoe vs. Vukic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30d2ccd808725af472c16bdbab1072790be473127dafe2616ff2ee53462802db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Tiafoe, Vukic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Vukic | 12c | 5,266$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.75 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Vukic | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Tiafoe | 62c | 3,900$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Vukic | 31c | 2,851$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.72 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tiafoe | 72c | 2,378$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.64 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Tiafoe | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Vukic | 32c | 1,351$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.29 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Tiafoe | 60c | 1,321$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.7 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Tiafoe | 68c | 876.34$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Tiafoe | 68c | 658.75$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Tiafoe | 66c | 557.09$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Tiafoe | 67c | 454.03$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Tiafoe | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…b252backed Tiafoe | 70c | 350.96$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Tiafoe | 65c | 330$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Vukic | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Vukic | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Vukic | 32c | 269.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tiafoe | 68c | 258.24$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Vukic | 30c | 221.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tiafoe | 69c | 217.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Tiafoe | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Vukic | 32c | 208.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Vukic | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Vukic | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Vukic | 30c | 187.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 176$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Tiafoe | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Tiafoe | 69c | 150.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Vukic | 31c | 133.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Vukic | 9c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Vukic | 27c | 118.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vukic | 29c | 117.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…ae13backed Vukic | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Vukic | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 372 | 33.9%126 W · 246 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Vukic | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +256.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Tiafoe | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Vukic | 31c | 72.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Tiafoe | 71c | 71.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Tiafoe | 69c | 71.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Tiafoe | 67c | 69.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Tiafoe | 68c | 67.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…2582backed Tiafoe | 71c | 66.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed Tiafoe | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Vukic | 36c | 60.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Vukic | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Tiafoe | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Tiafoe | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Vukic | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…b8e9backed Vukic | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tiafoe | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Tiafoe | 69c | 32.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…a02dbacked Tiafoe | 70c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Tiafoe | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.