F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec1fe5b18e01973d91da708767898581ab821820eabd4af50ad081ec0a1ed41d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 5c | 8,850$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.15 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,153$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 7c | 4,429$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…0576backed Yes | 7c | 3,550$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 64c | 1,565$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.83 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 39c | 1,288$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.84 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 23c | 1,256$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…1712backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 8c | 1,237$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 39c | 899.46$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.05 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 828.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 766.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 2c | 712.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 77c | 617$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.44 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed Yes | 5c | 510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a4…7937backed Yes | 12c | 444.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…8d6ebacked Yes | 7c | 375.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 40c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…0e56backed Yes | 8c | 192.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 36c | 143.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Yes | 37c | 136.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 73c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 65c | 115.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 43c | 112.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…b0eebacked Yes | 40c | 111.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…c88fbacked No | 65c | 107.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…1dccbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 61c | 65.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed No | 60c | 63.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…9f7ebacked Yes | 40c | 47.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…4c0bbacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…c00abacked Yes | 40c | 41.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…33b5backed Yes | 40c | 37.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 61c | 35.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada9…588dbacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa447…da3ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264e…a686backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed No | 59c | 23.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.