WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs Lynx
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3e3dbb9a5d187688a2b4feb6a83a1e7bcab997d4ff546b99445d2c0688748bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynxof Aces, Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Aces | 30c | 6,796$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.67 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Lynx | 69c | 3,620$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.13 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Lynx | 75c | 2,532$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.92 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Aces | 13c | 2,050$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Aces | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Lynx | 60c | 856$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.22 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aces | 20c | 803.21$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.64 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Aces | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Aces | 19c | 754.71$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Aces | 13c | 753.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lynx | 74c | 718.09$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.34 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Aces | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Aces | 18c | 492.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Lynx | 66c | 390.14$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Aces | 29c | 351.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Aces | 20c | 203.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Lynx | 70c | 167.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Lynx | 73c | 122$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Aces | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Aces | 20c | 103.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Aces | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Lynx | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Lynx | 57c | 58.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Aces | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8222…8b4ebacked Aces | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Aces | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Lynx | 77c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.