WNBA · resolved market
Wings vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8d8fa8242df65bc1eec7e866516a62beea633c4e816bb009488b881e9646b0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Wings, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Wings | 28c | 2,358$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.56 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Wings | 29c | 1,980$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.28 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Mercury | 71c | 1,730$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.7 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 71c | 1,581$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.55 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Mercury | 68c | 1,007$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.79 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mercury | 71c | 880.28$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.28 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 71c | 742$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Wings | 32c | 627$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Mercury | 75c | 519.39$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.39 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Wings | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wings | 27c | 410.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wings | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Wings | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Mercury | 70c | 300.48$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 74c | 289.7$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3043…2cbbbacked Wings | 29c | 209$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wings | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Wings | 30c | 185$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26a…6d6ebacked Wings | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Wings | 30c | 161.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Wings | 30c | 117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wings | 30c | 92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Wings | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Wings | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Mercury | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Mercury | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 71cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Wings | 27c | 40.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…1832backed Mercury | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.