NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G3: Will Haliburton score 18+ points against the Thunder?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ddd60319ae31e93a473739743757e4a99f94fad30f311fabcd8d394d3b9baef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 48c | 23,361$11,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,177.91 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 49c | 15,533$7,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,611.05 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 48c | 10,925$5,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,263.92 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 51c | 10,066$5,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,947.31 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 49c | 7,979$3,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,929.73 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 51c | 7,500$3,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 51c | 4,883$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.11 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 49c | 3,700$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 50c | 2,128$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.17 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 46c | 2,058$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.75 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Yes | 52c | 1,394$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.12 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 52c | 1,152$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.92 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…0042backed Yes | 52c | 868.63$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 45c | 718.82$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.47 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…256fbacked No | 49c | 660.18$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Yes | 52c | 570$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 51c | 500$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678f…74b7backed Yes | 52c | 362.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 51c | 224$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 56c | 178$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…f7d9backed Yes | 52c | 154$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked No | 49c | 147.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…6d35backed No | 49c | 129$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…6f1bbacked Yes | 52c | 127$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Yes | 58c | 118.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed No | 54c | 99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…0a7ebacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 51c | 94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee99…80e6backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 51c | 86.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4b…6ecebacked Yes | 51c | 79.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 53c | 73.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed No | 45c | 71.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…742bbacked No | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed No | 47c | 62.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 51c | 54.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…94e9backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…e428backed Yes | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…65dfbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 46c | 39.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…089dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +172%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…6f0cbacked Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 49c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…1d28backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.