NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44118a698122d0fe2c93e6e85d953028dae6673855f8969b26f5be737dd3ae7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Timberwolves | 52c | 105,106$54,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,493.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Thunder | 50c | 55,708$27,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,854.04 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Thunder | 48c | 41,698$19,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,841.77 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Thunder | 47c | 30,000$14,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,900 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder | 50c | 29,940$14,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,969.83 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Timberwolves | 52c | 17,600$9,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,152.11 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Timberwolves | 51c | 16,424$8,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,376.05 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 12,250$6,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,370 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 9,830$4,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,915.06 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 8,958$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,479 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder | 49c | 8,576$4,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,373.8 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Timberwolves | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Timberwolves | 0c | 4,378$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Thunder | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Timberwolves | 51c | 3,600$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.24 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 49c | 2,717$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.27 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Thunder | 59c | 2,565$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 2,000$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.85 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Timberwolves | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Thunder | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,332$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.7 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 47c | 1,281$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 969.23$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Timberwolves | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Timberwolves | 53c | 937$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Thunder | 47c | 776.52$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.39 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3343backed Timberwolves | 50c | 610$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…ae6ebacked Thunder | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 571.73$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 500$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Thunder | 48c | 437.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 173 | 35.8%62 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder | 41c | 409.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.91 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Thunder | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ca…f4c7backed Timberwolves | 53c | 396.23$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Thunder | 34c | 295.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.73 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…5c6abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 284.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…8f5dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 210.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Thunder | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Thunder | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder | 35c | 199.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Thunder | 49c | 152.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Timberwolves | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves | 65c | 113.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Timberwolves | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…8316backed Timberwolves | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Timberwolves | 65c | 96.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Thunder | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…8390backed Timberwolves | 66c | 84.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Thunder | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Timberwolves | 65c | 54.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed Timberwolves | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…cf9cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 48.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Timberwolves | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…15b9backed Thunder | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd23…288ebacked Thunder | 37c | 27.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…63dabacked Timberwolves | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 215.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 216.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 217.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 218.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 219.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 220.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.