TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,209 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbde3…4a49backed Thunder42c4,379$1,839 inWon+$2,54027251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Timberwolves58c3,359$1,948 inLost-$1,948.2229957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Timberwolves58c1,251$726 inLost-$725.5818146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3343backed Thunder42c610$256 inWon+$353.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves58c441.75$258 inLost-$257.852,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Thunder41c243.73$100 inWon+$143.811144.1%49 W · 62 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd70…25ddbacked Timberwolves62c161.29$100 inLost-$1003354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x871a…7be4backed Timberwolves59c20$12 inLost-$11.817359%102 W · 71 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Thunder76c13.68$10 inWon+$3.2810357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.