TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,204 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfcb0…c865backed Thunder52c2,200$1,144 inWon+$1,0567953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Timberwolves48c2,200$1,056 inLost-$1,0565736.8%21 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Thunder52c279.69$145 inWon+$134.2514052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…7726backed Timberwolves48c279.69$134 inLost-$134.2513138.9%51 W · 80 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Timberwolves47c273$128 inLost-$128.318052.5%42 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder34c268$91 inWon+$176.881,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Thunder53c268$142 inWon+$125.9610251%52 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves45c57.69$26 inLost-$26.22,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf391…73c3backed Thunder55c45.45$25 inWon+$20.453953.8%21 W · 18 L+6.4wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ab9…c906backed Thunder54c32.65$18 inWon+$15.021827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-44%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Timberwolves46c29$13 inLost-$13.3457550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Timberwolves45c27.25$12 inLost-$12.2618146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5b…7cfcbacked Thunder55c27.25$15 inWon+$12.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x726d…f473backed Thunder54c20$11 inWon+$9.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.