Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk endorse the Big Beautiful Bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13375cfdcd6b826c3ac850df1c324f2f07b82ad0916fb885569fdad69fa05739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 9c | 13,857$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.4 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 9c | 11,099$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,671$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 1c | 4,686$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 8c | 3,938$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,946$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…0d29backed Yes | 3c | 1,926$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1664…2babbacked Yes | 11c | 1,911$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,903$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 9c | 1,800$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,759$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,712$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 1,322$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…cd88backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,077$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 1c | 1,017$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…a8e0backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…e57abacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 11c | 999.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 5c | 987.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…afe5backed Yes | 11c | 814.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Yes | 4c | 758$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 6c | 620.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…01eebacked Yes | 9c | 619.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 606.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 4c | 499.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 465.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 10c | 464.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 11c | 449.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 439$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 2c | 409$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 10c | 326.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 320.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…a1fabacked Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 10c | 297.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…4b00backed Yes | 11c | 276.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…3f74backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 9c | 214.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 5c | 206.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…4447backed Yes | 11c | 181.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…0004backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 15c | 112.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 18c | 105.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…4ba2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 14c | 79.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.