WNBA · resolved market
Sparks vs Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c15f122ef77eb7431175e7a68dc7a7b6f9f2e99f14684652d5f2a48bf4e81b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sparksof Sparks, Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Aces | 26c | 4,549$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.95 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sparks | 58c | 3,987$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.8 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Aces | 45c | 3,202$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.3 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sparks | 66c | 2,339$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.15 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Aces | 80c | 1,977$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.23 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Sparks | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.57 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Aces | 1c | 1,343$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Sparks | 17c | 1,048$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.84 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Sparks | 66c | 917.32$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.52 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Sparks | 74c | 875.37$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Aces | 80c | 855$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Sparks | 20c | 805$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Sparks | 19c | 751.08$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.23 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Sparks | 17c | 684.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.03 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sparks | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sparks | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Sparks | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Sparks | 69c | 287.2$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…0c0cbacked Sparks | 20c | 250.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Sparks | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Sparks | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Sparks | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Sparks | 17c | 127$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +206.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sparks | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Aces | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Aces | 60c | 90.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sparks | 17c | 83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Sparks | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Aces | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Aces | 48c | 62.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sparks | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed Sparks | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Sparks | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Aces | 43c | 41.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Aces | 45c | 30.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.