World Politics · resolved market
Will Ed Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa8e9033686e66a2ed1759c12175cf233ea507486af766f2eef34bffe571192d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 33c | 3,647$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.76 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 71c | 3,340$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 78c | 2,960$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,695$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.53 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 3c | 1,430$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 24c | 1,264$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.88 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.41 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…f103backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 53c | 765.45$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.32 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed No | 22c | 629.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 32c | 533.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…bed9backed No | 34c | 410.04$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 61c | 399.94$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 7c | 387.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…0432backed Yes | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 60c | 360$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 59c | 305$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 55c | 268$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 46cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 15c | 259.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 213$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 201$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 33c | 189.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 182.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 37c | 167$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…5ce0backed Yes | 63c | 163.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 155$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 41c | 139.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 136.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 12c | 119.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 106.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 73c | 97.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 20c | 96.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 36c | 92.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 19c | 89.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 80.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…3574backed Yes | 59c | 72.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd789…9be7backed Yes | 59c | 68.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0498…7067backed Yes | 59c | 67.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…62b1backed Yes | 64c | 51.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 61c | 27.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 42c | 23.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2a…b7dfbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 62c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?this page
- Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Keir Starmer be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Lisa Nandy be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Pat McFadden be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
- Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.